Determinants and Life-Cycle Effects of Survival Ambiguity

Claudio Daminato and Irina Gemmo
Working paper #21
Retirement and Savings Institue – December 2025

This paper examines individuals’ uncertainty about their own life expectancy, a crucial factor in retirement planning. Using data from an online experimental survey conducted on a representative sample of the U.S. population, the authors develop a direct individual-level measure of perceived survival ambiguity based on the variance of subjective survival probabilities. The study finds that providing respondents with objective survival statistics significantly reduces their level of ambiguity. Moreover, higher survival ambiguity is strongly associated with lower savings rates. The authors construct a realistic life-cycle model of saving and portfolio choice that accounts for the empirical findings and highlights the role of ambiguity in shaping financial decisions. These results suggest that information campaigns on objective survival chances could effectively complement financial education programs to improve retirement security.